Dave's Energy

Monday, June 05, 2006

Place your bets

Hurricane season is nearing, and there is now betting action on how many/how severe it's gonna be. According to this blog, the current odds are in line with what one expert predicts. As of this post, the best odds offerred are the likliehood that 2 to 4 class 3, 4, or 5 hurricanes will hit the US mainland this season; they currently stand at 2.5 to 1! By the way, Hurricane Katrina was a class 1 hurricane; the lower the number, the less impact. This chart explains. Class 3 to 5 hurricanes aren't nearly as nasty as Katrina was, but Ivan and Rita were class 3 to class 5, so it can still be severe.

Could you imagine what would happen to GOM producers if they suffer another bad hurricane season? Shell just got the Mars platform nearly operational; what would they do if another hurricane ripped it apart? This is all doomsday/worst-case scenario speculation on my part, but it has to be a constant thought to anybody involved in the Gulf of Mexico.

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