Dave's Energy

Monday, December 12, 2005

Early Release of EIA Annual Energy Outlook

The Annual Energy Outlook presents a midterm forecast and analysis of US energy supply, demand, and prices through 2030. The projections are based on results from the Energy Information Administration's National Energy Modeling System. The Early Release includes the reference case. The full publication, to be released in early 2006, will include complete documentation and additional cases examining energy markets.




  • Interesting that the projection for "transportation" use doesn't look very elastic and it continues to far outpace the other areas by 2030. Clearly, this is where conservation has to take place.

    Given that the "petroleum" growth is higher than natural gas, the EIA is predicting status quo for fuels used in transport. I believe natural gas has the ability to displace crude oil in the transportation chain (through GTL processes, etc.), such that the "flat" curve for natural gas in the later years can move up sharply, compared to crude oil.

    By Blogger Dave Anderson, at 2:54 PM  

  • It's interesting how many times this report mentions the 2006 energy demand/usage projections are lower than the 2005 projections - sometimes significantly - b/c of "higher energy prices" than previously forecasted. If their model is pretty sensitive to energy prices, and prices continue to be volatile, then their forecasts will likely vary quite a bit year to year.

    It's also interesting that they modified their forecast to account for CTL production, which was not included in their 2005 forecast. Seems this technology is starting to turn some heads.

    Dave, do you think natural-gas-to-liquids will beat out coal-to-liquids in terms of market share for transportation fuels?

    By Blogger David Horning, at 9:13 PM  

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